Comparing The Pre-Fight Data From Pena/Nunes 1 & 2
Julianna Pena will attempt to shock the world again as she takes on Amanda Nunes for the second time this weekend from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, at UFC 277. The first meeting produced the biggest upset in Verdict history, with 92% of the community picking Nunes to win going into the matchup. Julianna Pena would go on to win by submission in the second round, leaving her the Bantamweight champion and setting up this epic rematch.
The first meeting was one of the most unpredictable and shocking outcomes in UFC history; with Amanda Nunes closing at a -1125 betting favorite with a roughly 92% implied win rate, she was one of the largest favorites in UFC history. Amanda Nunes came into this fight having nine title victories in a row against some of the biggest names in the history of the sport, like Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, and Holly Holm, earning stoppages in six of those victories. Julianna Pena made it clear during fight week that she would not roll over despite her underdog status by going at Nunes during a press conference which many were not expecting. Pena was coming into this matchup, having gone just two and two over her last four fights with wins over Sara McMann and Nicco Montano; however, she was finished in each of the two losses leaving many to question if she could handle Nunes resulting in her being a +700 underdog.
This time there is much more intrigue going into the fight as we have seen that Julianna Pena can pull off the upset, and many are wondering how Amanda Nunes will respond to her first loss in so long. Despite the last result, Amanda Nunes still sits as a heavy favorite at -275, with 66.5% of the Verdict community predicting her to win, showing that despite the last result, the public still has a lot of respect for what Nunes has done. Julianna Pena has shown she is not one to shy away from the underdog role, which she will be in again at +230. This is an interesting scenario where we see a fighter who was finished in a dominant fashion still be such a large favorite; however, in this case, it is impossible to ignore Nunes' past record when evaluating the fight.
Going into the first fight, it was known that if Julianna Pena were to beat Nunes, she would need to do it twice, and here we are with their second clash just ahead. It is clear that most believe Amanda Nunes is the better fighter in the rivalry; however, Julianna Pena is here because of her ability to prove people wrong, and she will have a chance to prove the first fight was not a fluke at UFC 277.
